W4_Andi_Decision Making Multi Attributes


1.                 Problem Definition

Maintenance as an Operation Expenditure Cost (OPEX) is naturally rise unanimous with ageing platform, indeed the source of oil and gas reserved will be decreasing, thus annual oil and gas production will be hereditary, as shown as Figure 1.

 1

Figure 1: Oil and Gas Production compared with OPEX[1]

Service and maintenance can be described as the combination of all technical, administrative and managerial actions during the lifecycle of an item intended to retain or restore the item to a state in which it can perform its required function.

2.                 Identify the Feasible Alternative

A correct decision making is properly required to choose installation method to be executed, installation Methods which has to be implemented on offshore platform are:

  1. Live Platform Method Installation as Option 1
    • Purposes for long period
    • High costly
    • Install during non-shutdown duration
    • Non-production losses impact
    • High obtain safety risk
  2. Shutdown Method Installation as Option 2
    • Purposes for long period
    • High costly
    • Install during shutdown duration
    • Production losses impact
    • Less obtain safety risk
  3. Permanent Repair as Option 3
    • Purposes for mid and long period
    • High costly
    • Install during shutdown or non-shutdown duration
  4. Temporary Repair as Option 4
    • Purposes for short period and temporary case.
    • Low costly
    • Install during shutdown or non-shutdown duration

3.                 Development of the Outcome for Alternative

Parameters which are trying to be analysis are:

  1. Cost

Define as cost which is charged to executors after those maintenances.

  1. Duration

Duration is how long time which are taken while execution is running.

  1. Production Losses

The oil production which are lost during platform Shutdown for installation periods.

  1. Quality

The Quality which is resulted from certain installation method.

  1. Safety

Safety reason which is initiated from certain installation method.

  1. Platform Integrity after Maintenance

How long Integrity status can be sustained which is resulted from certain installation method.

  1. Potential Next Production Losses

Possibility from production losses because of leakage or un planned shutdown platform after maintenance being executed.

4.                 Selection Criteria

These would be several models of decision making process:

The choice of attributes used to judge alternative method is one of the most important tasks in Multiattribute Decision Analysis, as shows as below table:

 2

Figure 2. Multi Attributes Analysis

To check for dominance factor, pairwise comparisons of each Maintenance Method of attributes must be inspected. There should be 6 Pairwise Comparisons required to compare 4 methods, shown as below table:

3

Figure 3. Paired Comparison

Lexicography Model is particularly suitable for decision situations in which a single attribute is judged to be more important than all other attributes. Many models including Lexicography require that all attributes first be ranked in order of importance (Ordinal Ranking).

 4

Figure 4. Ordinal Ranking

 5

Figure 5. Lexicography Method

 

5.                 Analysis and Comparison of the Alternative

It shows result on Figure 2. That’s Option 1 and Option 4 has similar best value (4 parameters), it explains that among 2 (two) best value methods could not be concluded as dominance factors.

Thus, Figure 3. Explains which is dominance method comparing with others, resulted no option are dominance comparing with others means that the best method could be decided yet.

The possible way to obtain a consistent ordinal ranking is to make paired comparisons between each possible attribute combination, and there are resulted best ordinal ranking between survey among team that:

Safety > Quality > Cost > Platform Integrity > Production Losses > Potential Next Losses > Duration

Figure 5. illustrates the application of lexicography to the ordinal ranking developed in Figure 4. The final choice would be Option 4, pertaining that safety is the top-ranked attributes, and Option 4 safety is the best of all.

6.                 Selection of the Preferred Alternative

Based on Lexicography another method can be considered as an alternative if there are any changing of value for each attribute, for example if there is Option 3 work safety had also 100% safety risk, than the choice would be made on the basis of Cost. And this would be resulted still Option 4 but in different attribute Consideration (Cost). Therefore lexicography does allow the best maintenance method to be chosen by executor.

7.                 Performance Monitoring and the Post Evaluation of Result

Decision Making Consideration using Multiattributes are currently could be considered as good modeling to be implemented, in other case author may implement other modeling to be compared, and it can be Compensatory Models.

Reference:

  1. UK North Sea oil production decline. Retrieved from

(http://www.oilvoice.com/n/UK_North_Sea_oil_production_decline/5e0b0a2ab66b.aspx#gsc.tab=0)

  1. Humphreys, G.C. (2011). Project Management Using Earned Value, Second Edition, Humphreys & Associates, Management Consultants.
  2. Giammalvo, P. D. (2012). AACE Certification Preparation Course Handouts.
  3. Sullivan Wicks Koelling, Engineering Economy (fifteenth Edition). Prentice Hall

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6 thoughts on “W4_Andi_Decision Making Multi Attributes

  1. Dear Dr. PDG,
    please kindly ignore words count requirement for this week blog posting, because it is related to my final paper, and i can’t just simplify the word.

    Thanks

    Andi Trianugroho

  2. GOT IT, ANDI. REMEMBER FOR THE FUTURE, BE SURE TO CITE THE PAGE NUMBER AND YOU CAN CLAIM CREDIT FOR BOTH THE BLOG AND FOR THE PROBLEMS FROM THAT CHAPTER IN ENGINEERING ECONOMY OR HUMPHREYS.

    SORRY FOR USING ALL CAPS BUT MY KEYBOARD IS BROKEN AND I NEED TO TAKE IT IN FOR REPAIRS ON SATURDAY.

    SEEING HOW YOU ARE DOING A GOD JOB WITH YOUR BLOGS, CAN YOU PLEASE HELP OUT BU SHINTA?

    THANKS…..

    BR
    DR. PDG

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